Credit where
credit is due: there were 90,000 fewer 18-24 year olds not in full-time
education and either unemployed or inactive during August and October compared
to the previous quarter.
Part of the fall
is due to 14,000 fewer young people aged 18-24.
In addition, an
extra 20,000 18-24 year olds are in full-time education or 32% of the age
group.
But the striking
feature of the figures is that there were 55,000 more 18-24 year olds classed
as ‘employed’ and outside of full-time education.
This again
appears good news yet it should be remembered that the term ‘employed’ also
includes those on government supported training and employment programmes
(GSTEP) such as the Work Programme.
Around 30% of
people aged 16 and over on GSTEPs are aged 16-24. Last quarter the number of 16
year olds and over increased by 19,000. A rough estimate, therefore, is that
5,000 were 18-24 year olds.
At the same time,
there are also 53,000 16-24 year olds who are employees or self-employed and on
GSTEPs such as the Youth Contract and the Work Programme. Around 65% are aged
16-24. They already feature in the estimates for employees and the
self-employed aged 18-24. Yet, there is no way of telling from the published figures
what has happened between August and October this year.
A safe estimate,
therefore, is that 50,000 more 18-24 year olds were in jobs outside of training
schemes and full-time education.
There were also 25,000
more 18-24 year olds in full-time education or government training schemes.
According to the
Office for Budget Responsibility, unemployment is set to rise in 2013 and 2104.
The question for
the Coalition is that, if the growth in jobs for 18-24 year olds is a temporary
blip will it seek to tackle unemployment and inactivity through full-time
education or training schemes?
Mark Corney is policy adviser to CfL. He
writes in a personal capacity.
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