A three tier education system?

by Mark Corney

The shock announcement by education secretary Michael Gove to replace GCSEs with O-level and CSE style examinations at 16 has raised the spectre of a two-tier education system.

O-levels for the academically bright and CSEs for the academically challenged is the masterplan.

Separating the academically able from the academically challenged at 14 will ensure bright kids from poor backgrounds study the right O-levels, staying-on at the same school to study the right A-levels to enter the best universities.

The problem, of course, is that most pupils from poor backgrounds would be channelled at 14 into taking the lower level CSE-style courses.

Free Meals and Social Mobility

by Mark Corney

Nothing explains the bias of the political class in England towards social mobility than free schools meals and entry into full-time higher education at 18.

Bright 16 year olds from poor families who stay-on in school sixth forms are eligible for free school meals.

By contrast, bright 16 year olds from poor families who stay-on at general FE colleges are not entitled to free meals.

FE: the third way to increase social mobility

by Mark Corney

The Coalition Government believes increasing social mobility is an economic, social and moral imperative despite the double dip recession and the fiscal deficit.

This week, the Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, explained the progress made over to past year to improve social mobility.*

The strategy may look comprehensive at first glance, however the ultimate concern of the Coalition, and it seems the Deputy Prime Minister, is increasing the number of bright children from poor backgrounds entering higher education by age 18/19.

Young people want jobs stupid!

by Mark Corney

The unemployment figures will be published on Wednesday.

The broader measure of unemployment provides a rolling quarterly average of the number of people who have looked for work in the past four weeks and ready to work in the next two.

The time frame is January to March which coincides with the start of the double dip recession when GDP fell by 0.2%.

Signs of further weakness in the youth labour market should show up on Wednesday although the fact that unemployment is a lagging indicator suggests the worst is yet to come.

A momentous week for education?

by Mark Corney

The local and city polls tomorrow are the main mid-term elections before the general election in 2015.

Next Wednesday the Queen's Speech will set out the future legislative programme of the Coalition Government.

Both parties of the Coalition will have factored-in a hammering in the English local elections long ago. The Queen's speech offers a chance to reclaim the political initiative. Education will have to feature somewhere.

The outcome of the London mayoral election whilst critical to the fortunes of the Conservatives and Labour is less important than a high turn-out.

Fall in youth unemployment due to more in full-time education

by Mark Corney

Much has been made of the fall by 9,000 in the number of unemployed 18-24 year olds.

Welcome news indeed but the presumption is they are in jobs. Nothing could be further from the truth as the number in employment also fell by 12,000.

So where have these 21,000 18-24 year olds gone?

16,000 more were economically inactive – without a job and had not looked for work – and

to complete the picture there are 5,000 fewer 18-24 year olds in the overall population

But the real story behind the figures is the continuing role of full-time education in reducing youth unemployment and inactivity.

Protecting spending on children and young people

by Mark Corney

Last week, I argued that the real story behind Budget 2012 for education and skills is how much of this part of our public services is expected to contribute to the extra real terms spending cuts of £6.5bn in 2015/16 and £10.5bn in 2016/17.

At the heart of these cuts is the battle between AME and DEL.  

Annually managed expenditure (AME) is revenue and capital spending that fluctuates with the economic cycle. Examples include debt interest and welfare spending. Departmental expenditure limits (DEL) is revenue and capital spending which can be managed over three years. Examples include most but not necessarily all spending on education and skills.

The Coalition could save the entire £10bn from AME or from DEL and, of course, a mix of both. Bearing in mind the state of the economy and the public finances, however, it is unlikely that ‘education and skills’ will be totally immune from further spending cuts.